Fighter jets, fighting words

How F-16s (and other weapons) shape complex U.S.-Taiwan-China relations

By Jonathan Adams
Global Post
January 15, 2009

DADU MOUNTAIN, Taiwan — In a control room dug into a mountain overlooking the Taiwan Strait, three soldiers from the 951st Anti-Air Artillery Brigade track the intruding airplane on their computer screens. A standing soldier barks procedures at them; the "Sky Bow" surface-to-air missiles are readied.

Then, in unison, the soldiers chant: "Three ... two ... one ... fire."

It was a drill, of course, for the benefit of visiting media. Had this been a real invasion, a Chinese fighter jet would have just been blown to Kingdom Come.

Here, on the coast facing westward to China, the 611th Battalion, Third Company, is part of Taiwan's first line of defense. China wants self-ruled Taiwan back, by force if necessary. These soldiers are here to make sure that doesn't happen.


Their job is getting tougher, though. In recent years, a newly wealthy China has gone on a military shopping spree, buying state-of-the-art Russian fighter jets, destroyers and other lethal goodies, and building more of their own. Taiwan hasn't kept up. The result: the military balance is rapidly tipping in China's favor.

According to the Pentagon, China has 490 combat jets within close range of Taiwan, with hundreds more available. Taiwan has 390, but its fleet is aging. Meanwhile, China now has more than 1,000 short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan, up from about 200 eight years ago.

That makes the 951st Brigade's mission increasingly thankless. Without air superiority over the Strait to keep Chinese planes at bay, this defensive point at Dadu Mountain would likely be quickly overrun; the base bombed to smithereens.

To keep up with China, Taiwan has asked the U.S. for more than 60 advanced F-16 fighters. "We need them [the F-16s], because air supremacy is the last qualitative edge that Taiwan still enjoys, and that edge is tipping," said security expert and former defense official Chong-Pin Lin. "All our other qualitative edges are gone."


For nearly three years, though, Washington has ignored Taiwan's request. And it's still sitting on separate requests for submarines and Black Hawk helicopters. Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon official in charge of arms sales to Taiwan, calls Washington's silent treatment on
the formal request for F-16s a "process foul."

Washington is bound by domestic law — the Taiwan Relations Act — to make available to the island sufficient weaponry for its self-defense.

The hold-up is political. China pitches a fit every time America sells weapons to its island ally. Arms sales are "politically symbolic," says Chu Shulong, a Beijing-based expert on China-U.S. relations. From China's perspective, "it means the U.S. is interfering in China's internal affairs. It means the U.S. is going to support and protect Taiwan — and that is encouragement for some in Taiwan to pursue independence."

Chu warned that if the U.S. sold Taiwan the F-16s, China could retaliate by cutting off military contacts with the U.S., buying less U.S. Treasuries or halting cooperation with the U.S. on
non-proliferation issues, such as North Korea's nuclear program. He said on this and other issues, "China now needs the U.S. less than the U.S. needs China — this is a big shift."

Taiwan's F-16s request is one of the hot potatoes Barack Obama will inherit when he takes office Jan. 20. How he handles the issue will be a litmus test for his administration's support for this democratic island-nation. More broadly, it will be a sign of his commitment to democracy in Asia and beyond.

Positive developments in the Taiwan Strait may make his job easier. Relations between Taiwan and China have warmed rapidly since the moderate Ma Ying-jeou took office in Taipei last May. Now there's even talk of exchanges between the Taiwanese and Chinese militaries and perhaps, even, a peace deal. That makes war extremely unlikely.

Still, Ma and others here want Taiwan to maintain a strong military. They believe Taiwan should enter negotiations with Beijing from a position of strength. Many Taiwanese agree.

One is Wu Di-jin, 55. I caught up with him at his car repair shop in Taipei, which he runs with his son, Chen-ming, 32. The elder Wu says cross-strait relations may have improved, but it be some time before Taiwan can let down its guard.

On the table next him is an airplane model — an American F-105 "Thunderchief" bomber. Chen-ming made it. He later fetches from a back room an F-16 model he built last year. An airplane enthusiast, he says even the type of F-16s Taiwan has requested aren't ideal — the
technology is too old.

Still, he and his father agree: Taiwan needs the fighters. "Taiwan must be prepared," says the elder Wu, watching over a grandchild in a crib. "It's very important for the U.S. to help us. It would be best for the U.S. to sell us the planes."

For Taiwan, F-16s and other U.S. weapons are an insurance policy in case relations with China go sour. Time will tell if Obama is selling.

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Somali militias clash

Islamist militias clash in Somalia as Ethiopian troops withdraw

As 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers depart, militia groups are battling to take more control from the weak transitional government.

By Jonathan Adams
Christian Science Monitor
Terrorism and Security update
January 12, 2009

Fierce fighting between rival Islamist militias left at least 25 dead in central Somalia on Sunday, as a struggle for the heart of this war-torn nation rages in the power vacuum left by departing Ethiopian troops.

The BBC reports that the hard line Al Shabab – regarded by the United States as a terrorist group – faced off against a "local militia," killing 30 and injuring at least 30 more. The fighting took place in Guriel, 310 miles north of the capital, Mogadishu.

Correspondents say that a power vacuum may be opening up as the 3,000-strong Ethiopian force pulls out of Somalia. Ethiopian troops arrived in Somalia in 2006 to help the interim government oust Islamists from the capital.

The Ethiopian intervention was deeply unpopular with many Somalis.... Al Shabab, which opposes a peace deal with Somalia's transitional government, is trying to take control of areas vacated by the Ethiopians - Guriel was one such town.

Agence France-Presse (AFP) put the number of wounded at more than 50. It identified Al Shabab's rivals as members of the more moderate group, the Ahlu Sunna Wal-jamaah. It said the two rival militias had already battled several times in December in a struggle for control of Guriel.

"It was the heaviest clash ever in the region between the two sides," Abdulahi Hirsi Moge, a local elder, told AFP. "We have counted at least 25 people, most of them combatants, killed in the fighting and there is still a possibility of some undisclosed dead bodies outside of the town," he added.

Garowe Online, the website of a radio station based in northern Somalia, reported that the fighting broke out around 5:30 a.m. Sunday when Al Shabab forces attacked a checkpoint manned by the moderate group. It claimed the moderates are warlords who are funded and armed by Ethiopia.

Voice of America reports that some Somalis were celebrating after Al Shabab's apparent defeat in Sunday's skirmish. It quoted a senior officer of the moderate militia, Sheik Abdulkarim Risak, as saying his group is determined to drive Al Shabab out of the country.

"Thanks to Allah, we have taught them [Al Shabab] a lesson today because they left at least 50 persons dead... and now we are moving to the capital, Mogadishu. We will continue to chase them wherever they are, and even if they are in a corner of our country, I think we would not stop our fighting," he said.

According to Mr. Risak, many of Al Shabab's men were foreign fighters, possibly from Southeast Asia.

In an interview published Saturday, Reuters quoted Somali interim president Sheikh Aden Madobe as saying Al-Shabab is the "biggest threat" to Somalia. He also said Somali troops were not ready to take over security duties from the departing Ethiopians.

Mr. Madobe said Somalia would select a new president at the end of the month in a conference in Djibouti. Meanwhile, Reuters reported, the African Union is urging member countries to fulfill promises of sending more troops to help bring stability to Somalia.

The AU has been desperately trying to beef up its existing force of some 3,500 troops from Uganda and Burundi. But despite pledges of extra battalions from those two nations and Nigeria, they have yet to deploy.

Analysts say unless the African Union force is strengthened soon there is a risk those peacekeepers will pull out as well, leaving even more of a security vacuum.

A commentary in last week's Economist called Somalia "Africa's most utterly failed state" and warned that the security situation could go from bad to worse with the departure of the 3,000 Ethiopian troops.

Ethiopia's withdrawal may simply leave a power vacuum, to be filled in short order by Islamist militias that are now even more dangerous than those crushed by the original invasion at the end of 2006.

[Former Somali president Abdullahi Yusuf's] gunmen may return north to their more or less autonomous homeland in Puntland, perhaps to profit from piracy. Various armed groups would then fight for control of Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, and of central Somalia. These include a patchwork of militias loyal to rival clan elders and warlords, along with moderate Islamists, radical Islamists, and private security groups hired by businessmen.

Last week, two World Food Program relief workers were shot dead by gunmen, according to the Associated Press.

In its latest report on Somalia, the International Crisis Group urged the international community to accept that Islamist insurgents must be given a place at the negotiating table. It said the high-profile fight against pirates in shores off Somalia had distracted the world from addressing the roots of Somalia's instability.

Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world's worst humanitarian and security crises. The international community is preoccupied with a symptom – the piracy phenomenon – instead of concentrating on the core of the crisis, the need for a political settlement.

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Taiwan eyes Obama

On stinky tofu, casual racism, and the big question of China

By Jonathan Adams
Global Post
January 8, 2009

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Shen Sian-wun already admired America's democracy. Since Barack Obama was elected in November, he looks up to it even more.

"For a black person to become president — that's not easy," said Mr. Shen, standing beside fragrant vats of two classic Taiwanese street dishes he serves at his Taipei restaurant — "stinky" tofu and oyster noodles.

"America's democracy is better than Taiwan's," he continued. "There, you have immigrants from all over the world and anyone can become president. Here, in Taiwan, we're almost all ethnic Chinese."

Many Americans may not even know where Taiwan is (100 miles off China's southeast coast). They often confuse it with Thailand ("Oh yes, I've been to Bangkok," I've heard several times, after telling other Americans where I live).

But Taiwan's 23 million residents – crowded on an island not much larger than Maryland – are watching America.

Walk down Taipei's crowded streets and chat with shop-owners, and you'll hear Shen's thoughts repeated, almost word for word. Taiwan's admiration for the U.S. sometimes seems total. And after Obama's victory, the view from Taiwan got even rosier.

This young democracy unabashedly looks to the U.S. as a land of opportunity, a political model and protector.

For the U.S., Taiwan has been a strong political ally since World War II, and is today a key trading partner, with annual bilateral trade topping $50 billion. But it also presents one of the greatest potential flashpoints for the new Obama administration.

Beijing sees self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory, to be reunified by military force, if need be. The U.S., meanwhile, is bound by law to "help defend" Taiwan against Chinese attack.

That gives this small island outsized importance. In the game of global politics, it's one of the few possible triggers for military conflict between the U.S. and China, which is the rising power of the 21st century.


At his shop across town, Dou Chen-ying, a masseur, waves me inside for tea and a chat — typical of the courtesy shown to an American reporter here.

"The U.S. doesn't care very much about Taiwan," Mr. Dou said, sitting in slippers in a massage chair. "The U.S. cares more about the mainland [China]."

Dou says Taiwanese are concerned that U.S. Democratic lawmakers aren't as committed to Taiwan's democracy as Republicans. The U.S. says it will help defend the island, but the promise is vague. If it's ever put to the test, Dou and others wonder if the Democrats will measure up.

"We're a little worried," says Dou. "We need the U.S. in order to support our independence. If the U.S. doesn't help us, who will? Nobody."

Then the talk returns to Obama himself, and in particular, his race — comments that can be shocking to American ears.

"He can raise black people's position," said Dou, enthusiastically. "Black people don't have as many opportunities to compete in America, so they're best at sports, but their I.Q. isn't as high."

Such casual racism is also typical of Taiwanese, who usually bear no ill-will and are often puzzled by American sensitivities. This, after all, is the island where one of the top-selling toothpastes is "Hei Ren" (black person), with the logo of a smiling black man in top hat and bowtie. (The English name was changed years ago from "Darkie" to "Darlie").

Down the street at the An Dong market, Ko Chih-long chops up chicken for a customer, and offers some perspective. "That's just an ad, it's not meant to look down on black people," he said. He noted with a chuckle that now "Bai Ren” (white person) toothpaste is also sold in Taiwan.

To hear Ko tell it, Obama has been over-hyped. "People's expectations are too high," he said. "It's just like here, with Ma Ying-jeou."

He's referring to Taiwan's current president, who was elected in March after promising to "immediately" improve the economy. Needless to say, that didn't happen. With the global economic crisis, Ma's approval ratings have nose-dived along with Taiwan's stock market, as this export-dependent economy gets hammered.

Ko also doubts Obama would go to bat for Taiwan. "What can the U.S. do? China buys so many U.S. Treasuries now," he said, standing over strewn raw chicken parts as a television beside him displays falling stock prices.


Elsewhere, though, Obama's star power is undimmed. On Yongkang Street, Yang Jun-ying and her mother are on the sidewalk selling peanuts and "lingjiao" — a root that's eaten here as a snack. Both are from Hunan province in mainland China. Both have married Taiwanese men and immigrated here.

Asked about Obama, the daughter said: "He gives so many people hope who didn't have faith before." She continued, saying, "They can think, no matter how messed up my own background or life has been, I can also become something."

Such is the power of Obama's story that it echoes halfway around the globe, at a humble street stand. Now, Taiwan will be watching this young, charismatic new U.S. president — and waiting to see if they have a friend.

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The Great Red Navy?

China projects naval power in pirate fight

Its warships and special forces are due in the Gulf of Aden by Jan. 6.

By Jonathan Adams
The Christian Science Monitor
December 30, 2008

BEIJING - China's dispatch of two warships to help battle Somalian pirates has drawn an ambivalent global reaction – a sign of the decidedly mixed feelings toward its bid for big-power status.

Two destroyers and a supply ship steamed out of a southern Chinese port Friday, on China's first patrol and potential combat mission beyond Chinese waters. The ships are due to reach the Gulf of Aden by Jan. 6 and carry 870 crew members, including 70 elite Navy special forces trained in close combat and helicopter-borne raids, according to the China Daily newspaper.

Two days earlier, a Chinese defense official, at a rare press conference, gave one of the clearest indications yet that China plans to build an aircraft carrier.

The developments reflect China's determination to boost its sea power, in line with its rising economic and political clout.

"Now we have more overseas interests and activities, so that's why we need a stronger force on the oceans," says Peng Guangqian, a military expert in Beijing.

The United States frets about how a bulked-up Chinese Navy might complicate a Taiwan conflict scenario. But it welcomed the decision to join amultinational naval "posse" battling Somalian brigands, who have turned waters off east Africa into a hazardous pirates' alley and wreaked havoc on world trade. Still, some of China's Asian neighbors have expressed concern about its naval muscle-flexing.

China: reclaiming great-power status

In China itself, the Somalia mission is seen as a natural outgrowth of its return to great-power status. China is increasingly reliant on foreign oil and other commodities – much of it transported by sea – to fuel its booming economy. The International Energy Agency reported that China imported half of its oil last year, and the agency expects that ratio to rise to 75 percent by 2030.

In a worst-case scenario, China is at the mercy of the US navy, the world's dominant sea power for the foreseeable future. Chinese military planners are all too aware that the US could conceivably throttle China's energy imports – just as it once did to Japan before World War II.

All the more reason for China to move from a "brown-water" to "blue-water" navy – which is to say, from a limited naval force patrolling China's own territorial waters, to one that can project power thousands of miles away. Enter the modern aircraft carrier battle group.

"China's navy is not good enough to meet the needs of China's maritime security, so I think it's necessary to build an aircraft carrier," says Mr. Peng, the military expert.

Neighbors cast a wary eye

But China's naval expansion makes some jittery – particularly in Japan and India. "Both are rivals of the Chinese," says Joshua Ho, an expert on maritime security at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. "Hence, any increase in China's naval assets or its ability to deploy long-range would be viewed as a threat to their own security."

India has its own great-power ambitions and Japan is concerned that "its influence in the region will wane," Mr. Ho explains.

Japan worries about a growing clash of interests as China's interest increasingly overlap with its own "exclusive economic zone."

A China with a heavily armed, oceangoing navy, "would be very dangerous for Japan, because China has many hidden intentions," says Hideaki Kaneda, a retired vice admiral and now the director of the Okazaki Institute in Tokyo. "Japan needs to keep a strict watch on Chinese movements."

Mr. Kaneda says he sees China advancing further and further east and cites "provocative" actions such as China's recent dispatching of two survey ships near the disputed Senkaku islands. He says the Somalia mission is a good "cover story" for China. The real purpose, he claims: "The PLA navy is now an ocean-going navy, so it must show the flag on the international stage."

Citing several Chinese submarine intrusions into Japan's waters, Katsuhisa Furukawa, of Tokyo's Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society, says China's military doesn't adhere to "international norms" – and that it's not sufficiently transparent about the intent behind its rapid naval buildup.

"China has so many faces," says Mr. Furukawa. "It's [Japan's] largest economic partner, but also a potential competitor on the international political stage, and a possible military threat.... There are deeply-rooted concerns in India about the future direction of China, and the same is true of Japan."

China's ships have made friendly visits to Indian ports for a couple of decades, and the two conduct regular joint exercises. But India takes a dim view of China's cooperation with archrival Pakistan. And some fear China's visits could quickly turn into a permanent naval presence, limiting India's elbow room in its own backyard.

"Beijing is ... signaling a new political will to use military force far beyond its shores," stated a Dec. 22 commentary in the Indian Express. "This, in turn, is bound to constrict India's own freedom of naval action in the Indian Ocean.... As China's shadow darkens over the Indian Ocean, the government must get its diplomats and sailors to work together as never before."

Taiwan is watching carefully, too, since naval power would be critical to any Chinese military move against the island. A stronger Chinese navy could blockade the island and deter the US military from coming to Taiwan's aid in the event of war. Much of China's naval shopping spree in recent years has focused on just such a contingency, with a rapid increase in attack submarines (estimated by the Pentagon in 2007 to number about 60); amphibious landing vehicles; and state-of-the-art, Russian-built destroyers.

A chance to cooperate

For the moment, though, most are choosing to see the Chinese navy's coming-out party as an opportunity, rather than a threat. The US, for one, is eager to patch up ties with the Chinese military, which were frayed when Washington released a massive $6.5 billion weapons package to Taiwan in October.

In fact, Somali pirates may have achieved what Washington and other foreign capitals could not: providing an opportunity for more military cooperation between China and its global peers. "Somalian piracy is a problem for the whole world, and both India and China are victims," says Arvind Kumar, an expert on Asian navies at Manipal University. "To fight the problem, countries have to work together."

China, for its part, is trying to allay concerns. It emphasizes that the Somalia mission is under the auspices of the United Nations, and notes its growing duties to help maintain international security (in fact, China was the last of the UN Security Council's five major powers to deploy ships in the pirate fight).

It's also stressing the need to protect Chinese ships and crew, after a recent incident in which Chinese crewmembers fought off Somalian hijackers with Molotov cocktails and makeshift water cannons.

China's naval development is "in line with" China's international obligations and its need to "cope with various security threats," Huang Xueping, a Chinese defense ministry spokesman, told CCTV. He said the Chinese military had forged many international ties in recent years, citing its joint exercises with 20 countries, and the more than 10,000 Chinese peacekeepers on 18 UN missions. But he admitted more was needed.

"We need the world to understand China better and to open China up more to the outside world," said Mr. Huang.

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Cycle island

Taiwan's bicycle boom defies economic downturn

By Jonathan Adams
Global Post
December 16, 2008

TAOYUAN COUNTY, Taiwan — Here at Pacific Cycles, which sits in an industrial park an hour's train ride from Taipei, the factory floor buzzes with activity. Taiwanese and Filipino employees are busy spot welding, aligning parts, applying decals, sorting wheels, polishing and painting.

Marketing manager Max Yeh guides me around the floor, showing off different wares. Pacific Cycles specializes in high-end, hand-crafted bikes, with an average price of $1,200.

These days, business is good. The firm expects its domestic sales to double this year, led by sales of fashionable “folding bikes.”

But what about the global downturn — won’t Pacific Cycles have to slash staff, like so many other firms?

Yeh shakes his head. “I don’t think any Taiwan bike companies will be laying off employees,” he says.

The global economic crisis that started in the U.S. hasn’t spared Taiwan. The stock market here is down sharply, growth is flat-lining and more firms are flirting with bankruptcy.

But bicycle exports in the third quarter of this year grew 38 percent from the same period last year, to $324 million, according to the Taiwan Bicycle Exporters’ Association. Domestic sales have seen a sharp increase, too: Taiwan itself is in the throes of a love affair with the bicycle.

Sitting in his Taipei office, James Liu, the association’s secretary, explained the boom. He said foreign markets for high-end bikes are growing, especially in Europe, while improvements in the process have paid off. “The quality of Taiwan bikes is improving,” he said, citing mountain and racing bikes as examples.

Just compare Taiwan to China, the world’s number one bike manufacturer (India is second, with Taiwan third). Taiwan shipped 5.45 million units last year, compared to China’s whopping 87.13 million.

But Taiwan’s focus on quality, rather than quantity, is apparent in the gap between average selling prices: $213 for a Taiwan-made bike, compared to $37 for a China-made one.

That focus on quality pays. When it comes to bike manufacturing, Taiwan made about one-third the revenues that China made, while shipping only 6 percent as many bikes.

Taiwan has also benefited from China-phobia, Liu explains. In a backlash against cheap Chinese imports, Europe has slapped “anti-dumping” tariffs on Chinese-made bikes that add more than 40 percent to the price.

Similar barriers for Taiwan-made bikes crumbled several years ago. “So Taiwan’s competitive ability has increased,” said Liu.

The island’s domestic bike-buying boom is helping, too. Taiwan’s number two bike manufacturer, Merida, expects 18 percent growth in sales for 2008, and credits the home market for much of that. It says domestic sales have tripled this year and now make up about 8 percent of total revenue.

“Taiwan is now one of the hottest markets for bicycles in the world,” said Merida spokesman William Jeng. “No one in the world has such a huge demand increase.”

What’s fueling the island’s bike craze?

Much of the it is rooted in Taiwan’s rising standard of living, said Jeng. “When you have enough money for basic living, you can start to care more about your health and the environment, and bicycling becomes part of your lifestyle,” said Jeng. “So we’ve become ‘Cycle Island.’”

Merida and other companies have promoted bicycling with mass rides and other events around the island. And the government has also played a key role. In recent years it’s built numerous biking trails, urban bike racks and other two-wheeled infrastructure.

Now, any weekend when the weather is good, urbanites young and old flock to the bike paths along Xindian Stream, part of a system of inter-locking trails that stretch more than 100 kilometers (about 62 miles) around Taipei. Giant Bicycle — the world’s largest bike company — runs centers along the paths where you can rent a bicycle for an afternoon ride. Across the country, such paths are now packed with riders.

“More people are using bikes for sports and recreation,” said Giant spokesman Jeffrey Sheu. Giant, the world’s largest bicycle manufacturer, is also riding high. The firm hopes to export more than 1 million units this year, 10 percent more than last year — with a 10 percent rise in their average bike prices helping to increase profits.

That’s sent Taiwan’s media abuzz with rumors of massive bonuses for all Giant employees. Like most Taiwan firms, Giant gives bonuses to all employees for Chinese New Year, which this year falls on Jan. 26.

But those reports were somewhat exaggerated, said Giant spokeswoman Irene Chen with a laugh. The company won’t calculate the bonuses until they know their full-year profits.

Back at Pacific Cycles, Yeh said that some of Taiwan’s bicycle-buying is just a fashion, and the fad can’t go on forever.

“It’s kind of like a fever — people who don’t even ride are also buying bikes,” he said. “So next year we expect growth to slow down.”

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