What will Beijing do?

All Eyes on China in North Korea Torpedo Case

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(May 20) -- World leaders harshly condemned North Korea today after a multinational probe squarely blamed the rogue regime for sinking a South Korean military ship in March and killing 46 sailors. But China, the world power with the most influence over the so-called "hermit kingdom," had a noticeably tepid response.

In Beijing's only public remarks, Cui Tiankai, China's deputy foreign minister, called the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan "unfortunate" and did not acknowledge North Korea's responsibility. The White House on Wednesday characterized it as "an act of aggression."

The crisis over North Korea has moved to the top of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's agenda as she leaves today for a trip to Japan, China and South Korea.

China's response in the days ahead will be watched closely for signs of whether it's willing to join most of the world community in taking a harder line against North Korea.

But its cool reaction so far highlights China's special relationship with the otherwise isolated North Korean regime, as well as China's fears of instability on its borders and in the region.

Beijing is North Korea's key economic partner and treaty ally, giving it the most leverage on Pyongyang of any world power.

"China wants regional stability and peace in northeast Asia, and it wants to take things step by step," said Gong Keyu, an expert on China's relations with North Korea at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies. "That's why China didn't say too much about" the results of the probe.

"China wants to take a fair look and make things clearer, and then we can respond," she said.

China angered some in South Korea by waiting weeks to make any public statement on the March 26 ship sinking, even as other world leaders offered their condolences for the massive loss of life.

Gong said that China may send delegates, possibly along with North Korea, to South Korea in the coming days and weeks to seek clarification on the results of the probe. She said she personally is still not convinced that North Korea intended to strike such a deadly blow.

"I don't see a lot of reasons why North Korea would insist on doing this," she said. "Maybe they made a mistake. One possibility is they wanted to fire a torpedo to scare South Korea but didn't think it would be very, very serious."

She compared Pyongyang to "a boy who did something wrong, but didn't know it would be so serious, like breaking a glass -- he didn't know it would make his parents so upset."

South Korea, under pressure from hardliners at home to respond militarily to what they view as an act of war, is expected instead to take the issue to the United Nations Security Council. China will be key to that process, since it holds a Security Council veto and so can block any action.

But Gong said that China may use the Security Council's current focus on the Iranian nuclear issue as an "excuse" not to discuss the ship-sinking issue right away.

Another Chinese expert on North Korea, Zhang Liangui, told the Telegraph that China could be pushed to take sides at the U.N.

"South Korea's submission of its report to the U.N. will clearly force China into making a stance, and this will be a challenge," Zhang told the Telegraph. "This will be handled by the foreign ministry, but my view is that China, in accordance with its rising status as a major country, should not go against the rest of the world, but should consider its interests in line with the majority."

So why is China so loathe to turn the heat up on its loose-cannon neighbor?

A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington security think tank, gave several reasons.

China wants to preserve the status quo of two Koreas, and fears that instability in North Korea could hurt its northeast provinces. Beijing also fears that a crisis could lead to a massive flood of refugees into northeast China, and could result in a hostile North Korea on its border -- or a beefed-up South Korean and U.S. military presence just next door.

"The Chinese want to avoid a hostile relationship with their neighbor," Bonnie Glaser, one of the report's authors, said at a recent CSIS forum. "They believe that relationship remains exceptionally important."

Gong, the Chinese scholar, said China was trying to get North Korea to pursue economic reforms that could make it more self-sufficient, such as those followed by China itself since the late 1970s.

"We want to show North Korea that we are a very good model -- 'You can follow me,'" Gong said.

Meanwhile, she said the South Korean ship-sinking crisis could actually be an opportunity for the U.S. and China. "This is a very good chance for China and the U.S. to understand each other better," Gong said. "So I think things will be much clearer in the coming days and weeks."

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Taiwan curbs US beef

Health concerns and angry protests have prompted partial bans on US beef imports in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea – most recently by Taipei on Tuesday. The recurring dispute has strained relations.

Christian Science Monitor, January 5, 2010

Taipei, Taiwan -- Taiwan's restriction of some United States beef imports Tuesday highlights an ongoing source of friction in US-Asian trade relations.

In recent years US beef imports have become a lightning rod in East Asia, due to a potent mix of health concerns, nationalism, and political opportunism.

Beef has become a measure of whether governments are viewed as standing up for citizens' health or buckling to US pressure, says Koji Murata, a political science professor at Japan's Doshisha University.

"For junior partners of the US such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, this issue is a kind of symbol –of course, an exaggerated one – of American oppression," he says.

The move by Taiwan's legislature comes amid fears of mad cow disease, and criticism that President Ma Ying-jeou's government failed to consult the legislature or the public before lifting a partial ban on US beef in October.

The issue has strained Taiwan's ties with the US, even as the self-ruled island moves ever closer into China's economic orbit with a series of cross-strait commercial deals.

Taiwan legislators reached a consensus last week to revise a food law to ban the import of US ground beef, offal, and other beef products seen as posing a greater health risk.

That drew unusually harsh criticism from Washington, which accuses Taiwan of overturning an October deal that was signed after extensive negotiations and study.

"Science and facts – not politics or hyperbole – should govern our trade and economic relations," US trade and agriculture officials said in a statement. "This is a serious matter that concerns us greatly."

Politicized issue

Japan banned US beef imports in late 2003, after a single cow in the state of Washington was found to have mad cow disease. South Korea, Taiwan, and other Asian countries quickly followed suit. US beef exports plunged, hit especially hard by the ban in the No. 1 export market, Japan.

Japan reopened to some US beef imports in 2006, but restrictions remain.

South Korea's reopening to beef in 2008 under a US-friendly president sparked weeks of massive protests and a political crisis that had a nationalist, anti-American edge. Seoul ended up watering down a previous agreement with Washington, much as Taipei is doing now.

Park Kie-Duck, former president of South Korea's independent Sejong Institute, says anti-US beef protests were led by Web-savvy students who spread fears online. But the issue has resonated more broadly in East Asia because of countries' worry that their traditional agrarian identities are under threat.

"We see the agricultural industry as a kind of strategic industry, and people want to keep that industry safe," says Mr. Park. "That's why this issue is so sensitive."

In Taiwan, the scale of protests has been smaller, but emotions have also run high. Groceries and beef noodle restaurants have displayed anti-US beef logos.

On Tuesday, a man had the words "The people stand up" and a clenched fist tattooed to his back amid chanting anti-US beef protesters.

In late October, one student filmed himself eating what he claimed was a cow-dung burger in front of the Presidential Office, protesting that it was safer to eat than American beef. (See videoclip here.)

Lin Chong-Pin, a professor of strategic studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University, says resentful legislators from President Ma's own party had seized the beef issue to teach Ma a lesson.

"From Day 1 – Ma's inauguration – they felt they'd been ignored," says Professor Lin. "It's pent-up frustration that's finally found an outlet."

Promises of safety

US officials insist American beef is safe (see their factsheet here). They cite a 2007 World Organization for Animal Health decision, which said the US had appropriate measures in place to assure the safe export of its beef.

But the US has been embarrassed by export violations by its beef producers. Japan relaxed restrictions in 2006, only to renew them after banned bone parts were found in one shipment.

Last October, Japan banned beef imports from one meatpacking plant in Nebraska after banned parts were found in another shipment.

Such incidents have fueled distrust. "The perception is that the Americans are very sensitive to the import of Asian manufactured goods to the US but insensitive to exports of potentially dangerous food goods to Asia," says Doshisha University's Murata.

Washington has linked the beef issue with progress on a South Korea-US free trade deal – now languishing in Congress – and trade liberalization talks with Taiwan.

Those talks have been suspended since 2007, and observers say they may be further postponed over the latest beef controversy.

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